Four Scenarios for Democracy in the Western Balkans: From Hope to Disenchantment

What will democracy in the Western Balkans look like by 2040? The region is in many ways walking a tightrope of contradictions: stalled reforms alongside rousing breakthroughs; protests in some corners and striking apathy in others; political bargains that privilege stability over fairness, and– at times – small victories of principle over short-sighted convenience. These tensions are traced in a recent International IDEA report, written by the authors of this article, that highlights four possible scenarios for the future of democracy in the region, ranging from hope to disenchantment. The scenarios are grounded in strategic foresight methods, which examine multiple plausible futures, rather than predicting a single one, helping inform decision-making through forward-looking analysis. With a track record spanning decades, from Cold War military planning to corporate strategy and public policy, this methodology helps decision-makers prepare for change, test assumptions and navigate uncertainties.